Shifts in Politics of Tanintharyi
This briefing examines political developments in Tanintharyi Region during the Spring Revolution through interviews with Tavoy, Karen, Kawthaung District and Myeik District political forces in the region and with Mon political forces in neighbouring areas.
After the 2021 coup, ideas of self-determination and bottom-up federalism took hold in Tanintharyi Region, replacing reliance on the NLD's mainland-based leadership.
Through the 2026 Tavoyan National-Level Political Conference, Tavoy forces formed the Tavoyan National Federation (TNF) and the Tavoy Army (TA). The TNF pursues nation-based self-determination, while the Myeik and Kawthaung district forces think in terms of geographic territory. The NLD/MP-led drafting of an interim arrangement has been criticised for excluding local forces, and the KDPO has demanded that the process be suspended.
Abundant natural resources are the region's main problem, and local people are caught in between in areas of mixed control.
Most forces support bottom-up federalism, but after some four failed attempts to establish a Tanintharyi federal unit, patient and inclusive negotiation is still needed.
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