Since Myanmar's military coup in February 2021, India has faced one of its most complex foreign policy dilemmas in decades. Sharing a 1,643-kilometre land border with Myanmar and bound by deep historical, cultural, and strategic ties, New Delhi has had to navigate a rapidly deteriorating crisis without a clear playbook. While Western governments moved swiftly to condemn the junta and withdraw diplomatic support, India charted a markedly different course — one defined not by silence or indifference, but by a calculated and evolving strategy of engagement.

This report, produced by the Progressive Grassroots Initiative in collaboration with Spring Sprouts, examines that strategy in depth. Drawing on process tracing, original event data, and elite interviews, it argues that India's approach to post-coup Myanmar is best understood as adaptive continuity — a dual-track policy that maintains visible, institutional engagement with the State Administration Council (SAC) while simultaneously preserving informal, intelligence-led channels with opposition forces, ethnic armed organisations, and civil society networks. Neither full endorsement nor outright disengagement, India's posture reflects a careful balancing act shaped by border security, regional connectivity, and the realities of a fragmented conflict.

What emerges from this analysis is a portrait of a regional power managing uncertainty rather than resolving it. As Myanmar's internal legitimacy contest grows more protracted and decentralised, India's dual-track approach faces mounting pressure — and its choices will carry consequences not just for bilateral relations, but for the broader political future of mainland Southeast Asia.